Biden's China Policy: Moderation Period, Strategic Competition, and Trade
United Daily News Editorial, November 7, 2020
Beijing has been paying very close attention to the presidential election in the Untied States this year because its result will deeply affect long-term U.S.-China relations and China’s development. But some other people think no matter who is elected, America’s posture to curb and confront China will not change. Now Joe Biden is almost certain to be elected, the U.S.-China relations will enter into a period of moderation after President Donald Trump steps down. For Xi Jinping, the next two years is the key period for him to reach his power apex during the 20th National Party Congress, and he has to manage U.S.-China relations well. Biden’s presidency is a reset button, and Beijing must seize the opportunity.
Biden and Xi have some personal friendship. In a period of 18 months after 2011, Xi the heir apparent and then Vice President Biden met at least 8 times. Biden also said that he had spent more time with Xi than with any other world leaders. However, when Biden becomes the president, he will not return to President Barack Obama’s engagement policy towards China, and he will not be an Obama 2.0 president. In fact, during the later half of Obama’s second term, the engagement policy was proven to be ineffective, and China has become a long-term strategic threat to the United States.
This is the structural factor of the Thucydides’ trap: there will be tensions between rising powers and existing powers. These tensions will not change greatly because of personal relationship between leaders or U.S. government’s honeymoon period with Beijing. The Biden administration will deal with China’s rise more effectively, and with the increase of strategic competition, the opportunity of clashes between China and the United States in South China Sea or Taiwan Strait will not decrease.
After Biden is elected, the first indicator to watch is whether the U.S.-Japan-India-Australia Security Dialogue, the so-called Asian NATO, will be established according to schedule. As Biden wrote in the Foreign Affairs magazine earlier this year, the most effective way to deal with China’s challenge is to establish a unified front of U.S. allies and cooperative partners. Biden will resume American commitments to NATO, he will probably continue to establish the Asian NATO, or even continue Trump’s national security strategy by seeing China and Russia as strategic competitors.
However, in addition to confrontation, there will be cooperation when Biden assumes the presidency. To observe the U.S.-China economic and trade trends, China has increased its imports from the United States after July, the amount of purchase from the United States has reached $23 billion in the last part of October, equivalent to 71 percent of the promised value. The purchase of American beef and pork has also reached a historical heigh point. The measures by China were not to help Trump’s campaign, rather to turn to peace and low-key, in order to prevent deterioration of U.S.-China relations. The U.S. secretary of agriculture said that the initial trade agreement between the United States and China was a big success to the American economy.
Therefore, the economic and trade conflict between the United States and China has its limits. More and more people begin to review whether Trump’s tariffs war and decoupling war really benefit the American economy. China’s GDP grew to 4.9 percent in the third quarter of this year and may grow to 5.0 percent in the fourth quarter. As the American economy is still in deep trouble, the deepening and acceleration of U.S.-China economic cooperation may be needed to revitalize the American economy.
Biden did not agree with Trump’s economic confrontation with China. Biden thinks Trump’s trade war was a wrong measure; so people think Biden may reconsider tariffs measures against China. Biden’s foreign policy advisor Anthony Blinken said that decoupling from China was not a good idea, and Democratic Party’s platform also stated that the United States should not unilaterally start a tariffs war, for it may hurt American labors. Biden hopes to have a longer vision, focusing on the cooperative win-win strategy of the new international environment. To do so, America has to cooperate with China, especially on the issues of climate change and pandemic prevention, so there are more room for cooperation between United States and China.
During this election campaign, many people in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the United States hoped to see the re-election of Trump. The main factor is that Trump is tough on China and he has adopted many measures to embarrass China. This mentality was not to support Trump, rather to show strong dissatisfaction with Chinese leadership’s disregard of freedom and human rights, so they like to see that Trump can counterbalance China. After Biden is inaugurated, this expectation will be projected on him. As a matter of fact, Democrats emphasize more on freedom and human rights than do the Republicans. Biden had described Xi Jinping as a person without a bone of democracy. For Beijing, comparing with military and trade wars, it is more difficult to deal with a U.S. government that insists on democracy and human rights.